Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Current price
96.75¢
−0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.75%
$13.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define that the outcome depends on who wins the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. While initial reporting allows consensus coverage, any ambiguity defaults strictly to the official results from Bulgaria's Central Election Commission. A specific tie-breaker clause resolves equal vote tallies by the alphabetical order of candidates' full names as listed, and a long resolution backstop of June 30, 2027 resolves to Other if results remain unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iliana Iotova will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with ties broken alphabetically by candidate name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iliana Iotova wins the highest number of valid votes in the first round of the election, or wins an alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for first place. The market resolves to No if another candidate achieves the highest finishing position under these criteria. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bulgaria resolving any ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the first round of the election.
- Definitive outcome deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results remain unknown at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Bulgarian Central Election Commission (CEC)
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