Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define a qualifying closure as an official NOTAM or order suspending commercial aviation across the entire Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (LLLL FIR). However, market participants should note extensive exclusions: partial closures by geographic sector or altitude band, nationality-specific bans, technical air traffic control failures, and ground stops or flow management measures do not qualify. News reports often announce airspace closures during regional tensions that are technically only ground stops or sector restrictions, which would resolve this market to No. Resolution relies on official Israeli aviation authorities alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Israeli airspace (the Tel Aviv FIR/LLLL) is closed to general commercial aviation by September 30, 2026. Resolution requires an official general closure rather than partial restrictions or specific non-qualifying events like weather or technical failures.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israeli Airspace (Tel Aviv FIR/LLLL) is closed between market creation and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or order generally suspending commercial transit, arrival, and departure flights, with default prohibition even if emergency or humanitarian exceptions exist. Excluded from qualifying closures are weather/seismic events, holidays, closures planned before contract issuance, technical malfunctions, nationality-based restrictions, partial geographic/altitude closures, ground stops/flow management measures, and third-party restrictions. The market resolves to No if no qualifying closure occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official Israeli government sources (such as the Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Authority, and Israel Airports Authority) and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the airspace closure to take effect (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
Official information from the Israeli government (including the Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Authority, and Israel Airports Authority) and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.