Watch for: The rules clearly specify which Millennium Prize problems qualify, explicit exclusion of the Navier-Stokes problem, and the requirement that the announcement claims a complete solution rather than partial progress.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify which Millennium Prize problems qualify, explicit exclusion of the Navier-Stokes problem, and the requirement that the announcement claims a complete solution rather than partial progress. Participants should note the specific attribution constraint: OpenAI, its researchers, or its models must be credited with the solution (alone or jointly), meaning mere congratulations or external researchers using OpenAI credits or compute do not satisfy the criteria. While official statements from OpenAI are the primary source, the resolver may rely on a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source. No external validation from the Clay Mathematics Institute is needed.
Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
49%
chance
▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Yes49¢
No51¢
December 31, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 50.5 H 59.5 L 38.5 C 49.0−1.5 (−3.0%)
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 06:20 UTC
Earlier
▼ −11 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 02:40 UTCThe probability fell from 56% to 45%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.Price facts only. News isn't searched for tech & science markets yet.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 02:50 UTC
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI announces that it has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027. Notably, it excludes the Navier-Stokes problem and does not require verification from the Clay Mathematics Institute.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET that OpenAI has solved any qualifying Millennium Prize Problem. Qualifying problems include the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, Yang-Mills existence and mass gap, Hodge Conjecture, and Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. The announcement must claim a full solution rather than partial results, and must present it as work by OpenAI, its researchers, or its models (alone or jointly). Announcements regarding Navier-Stokes or merely congratulating outside researchers do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from OpenAI or its representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting