Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly list the specific qualifying Millennium Prize Problems and explicitly exclude the Navier-Stokes problem.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly list the specific qualifying Millennium Prize Problems and explicitly exclude the Navier-Stokes problem. They define what constitutes a qualifying announcement, specifying that it must claim a full solution rather than partial progress, and require the work to be directly attributed to OpenAI, its researchers, or its models rather than third-party users. Resolution depends strictly on an announcement occurring before the deadline, with no requirement for mathematical peer review or verification from the Clay Mathematics Institute. While a consensus of credible reporting is permitted as a fallback, resolution is anchored primarily in direct statements from OpenAI and its official representatives.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI announces that it has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2026. Unusually, Navier-Stokes problems and partial progress are excluded, while no external verification from the Clay Mathematics Institute is required.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or its official representative announces between creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET that OpenAI solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem. Qualifying problems include the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, Yang-Mills existence and mass gap, Hodge Conjecture, and Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. Announcements about Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness, partial progress, or merely crediting outside researchers do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Official statements from OpenAI or its representatives decide resolution, with credible reporting consensus as an alternative.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·