Will Duke win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
Current price
9.5¢
−5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$838.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market follows the standard outcome of the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament using official NCAA information as the primary source. The rules explicitly provide for early resolution to No if the team fails to qualify or is eliminated from the tournament. A clear deadline of April 19, 2027, handles potential cancellations or delays by resolving to Other, leaving little ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament (the national champion). If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 tournament (e.g., they are eliminated or fail to qualify), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Duke University wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Duke wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Duke to win the tournament, such as by being eliminated or failing to qualify. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past the April 19, 2027 deadline, or if no champion is declared by that time. Official information from the NCAA is the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Tournament must declare a champion by this time, otherwise the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from the NCAA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.