Will Florida win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
Current price
14¢
−2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14%
$6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on whether Florida wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Early resolution to No occurs if the team is eliminated or fails to qualify, and a clear deadline of April 19, 2027, handles potential cancellations or postponements. Official results from the NCAA serve as the primary source, leaving very little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament (the national champion). If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 tournament (e.g., they are eliminated or fail to qualify), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Florida will win the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball National Championship. It includes a specific fallback resolution to Other if the tournament is postponed past a stated deadline or cancelled.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Florida wins the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Florida to win the 2027 tournament, such as through elimination or failing to qualify. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no champion is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is decided by official information from the NCAA, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Postponement and champion declaration deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the NCAA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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