Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 30% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 31, 2026 · $648K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Iran and Oman will announce an official diplomatic agreement regarding vessel and shipping traffic management in the Strait of Hormuz by specific target dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of individual deadline-based markets. Because each market evaluates whether an agreement is announced by its specified date, an agreement reached by an earlier deadline will result in multiple markets resolving Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if both Iran and Oman officially announce acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement over Strait of Hormuz traffic by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The agreement must establish commitments or policies aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel traffic (such as traffic corridors or fee policies). Unambiguous joint or separate declarative statements are required; references to ongoing negotiations do not count. Ambiguous announcements trigger a 14-day evaluation period. Resolution is determined by official government information and credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31 deadline: October 31 at 11:59 PM ET (year not specified)
- November 30 deadline: November 30 at 11:59 PM ET (year not specified)
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| November 30 | 22% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 6% | ▼ 2 | Med | High |