Will Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions for winning, referencing standard Nigerian constitutional requirements.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions for winning, referencing standard Nigerian constitutional requirements. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by official results from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the event of ambiguity. A clear longstop date of October 31, 2027, is provided to account for potential runoffs or delays, resolving to Other if an official winner is not determined by that time.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
22%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kano State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo will win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election in Nigeria, with an explicit "Other" fallback if results are not definitively known by the resolution deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo wins the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election under Nigerian legal requirements, including vote total and geographic distribution criteria. Interim, acting, or caretaker Governors do not qualify. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if no candidate has been officially elected or if the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If no candidate wins outright initially, the market remains open for runoffs held before the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources resolving any ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·