Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on whether the named candidate is officially elected as the Governor of Kano State for the term beginning in 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on whether the named candidate is officially elected as the Governor of Kano State for the term beginning in 2027. The election criteria explicitly match Nigerian constitutional requirements, including provisions for runoffs. A clear resolution fallback is provided to official publications from Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the event of ambiguity. There is also a generous long-stop deadline of October 31, 2027, which resolves to an Other outcome if results remain undetermined or contested past that point.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kano State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abba Kabir Yusuf will win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election in Nigeria. It includes specific provisions for runoffs, rescheduling, and fallback resolution to "Other" if no candidate is officially elected by a deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Abba Kabir Yusuf wins the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election in accordance with Nigerian law, excluding any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor positions. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins the election. The market resolves to "Other" if the results are not definitively known or no candidate is officially elected by October 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If no candidate wins outright, the market stays open for runoffs held before the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·