Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$9.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear, objective criteria with very little room for interpretation. It resolves immediately to Yes if any one-minute candle on Binance for the ETH/USDT pair reaches a High of $4,000 or greater before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and to No otherwise. A single specific data source and trading pair are designated, explicitly excluding all other exchanges and pairs, leaving virtually no discretion to the resolver.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ethereum reaches a price of at least $4,000 on Binance by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle high prices.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT has a final High price of $4,000 or greater between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold by the deadline. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or other spot markets are disregarded. Resolution is determined solely using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart data.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market measures 1-minute candle high prices through 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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