Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are clearly defined and leave minimal room for ambiguity. Resolution relies strictly on a named, publicly accessible source and a single trading pair (Binance ETH/USDT). The trigger condition specifies exact technical parameters: any one-minute candle reaching a final high price of $4,000.00 or higher before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, triggers an immediate positive outcome, while failure to reach that threshold by the deadline results in a negative outcome. Other exchanges and trading pairs are explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the price of Ethereum reaches or exceeds $4,000 on Binance by September 30, 2026. Resolution relies exclusively on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle high prices, ignoring other exchanges and pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the ETH/USDT pair has a final High price of $4,000 or higher between market creation and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds this threshold by that deadline. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or other spot markets do not count toward resolution. The outcome is decided using Binance ETH/USDT chart data set to 1-minute candles.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market closes to new data at 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.