Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes the Liberal–National total, specifically combining lower house seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes the Liberal–National total, specifically combining lower house seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a clear fallback to official results from the Victorian Electoral Commission. A timeout clause resolves the market to Other if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027. Note the tie-breaking mechanics: if seat counts are equal, ties are broken first by valid first-preference votes and then alphabetically by name, which is an artificial mechanism that could decide the outcome in a dead heat.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance▲ +0.95 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Rules history
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Liberal–National Coalition wins the most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly in the next Victorian state election. Seat totals for the Liberal Party and the Nationals are combined regardless of coalition behavior, and ties are broken first by first-preference votes and then alphabetically.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Liberal–National Coalition wins the highest ranking based on seats won in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. Liberal–National includes all seats and first-preference votes won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals. If tied on seats, ranking is determined by total valid first-preference votes, and then by alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another party or coalition achieves the highest ranking. The market resolves to Other if the definitive results are not known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) deciding any ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) if ambiguity exists
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·