Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner

This event tracks the outcome of the next Victorian state election, scheduled for 2026. Markets measure which political party or coalition will secure the most seats in Victoria's Legislative Assembly (lower house).

How the outcomes relate

The event contains markets representing different political parties or coalitions. Because parties are ranked to determine a single highest-finishing entity—using tiebreakers including first-preference votes and alphabetical order if necessary—at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if its named party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly in the next Victorian state election. If parties tie on seats, the tie is broken first by valid first-preference vote totals and then by alphabetical order. If election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) if ambiguity arises.

Key dates

• Scheduled Election Date: Nov 28, 2026 — Scheduled date for the Victorian state election to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
• Definitive Results Cutoff: Mar 31, 2027 — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET, after which the market resolves to Other if results remain unknown.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) used in case of ambiguity

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 23 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC