Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the targeted event as the November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local election for Mayor of Keelung.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the targeted event as the November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local election for Mayor of Keelung. Official resolution falls back to the Central Election Commission database if media consensus is ambiguous, providing an authoritative, objective source. There is a clear fallback resolution date of June 30, 2027 if no winner is determined, and temporary or interim appointments made prior to the election are explicitly excluded.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
31%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Tung Tzu-wei will win the next election for Mayor of Keelung, Taiwan.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tung Tzu-wei becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of the scheduled election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission of Taiwan if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Central Election Commission official results used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·