Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung from the scheduled November 28, 2026 local elections.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung from the scheduled November 28, 2026 local elections. Official election results from the Central Election Commission serve as the definitive fallback source if reporting is unclear. The rules explicitly exclude interim or temporary mayors appointed prior to the election, and include a generous timeout date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if no winner is determined by then.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
71%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Hsieh Kuo-liang will win the next Keelung Mayor election scheduled for Taiwan's local elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hsieh Kuo-liang becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Central Election Commission of Taiwan as the definitive source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·