Will Huang Kuo-chang win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the next New Taipei mayoral election. Resolution relies primarily on credible consensus reporting with an explicit backstop tied directly to the official Central Election Commission database. The rules clearly exclude interim or temporary appointments and set a generous longstop date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if the election is not concluded by then. The criteria directly reflect the question with minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Huang Kuo-chang will win the next New Taipei Mayor election scheduled for 2026. Resolution depends on the election outcome rather than any interim or temporary appointments made prior to the vote.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Huang Kuo-chang becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date of the Taiwanese local elections
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Taiwanese Central Election Commission
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