Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
Current price
63.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63.5%
$66.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei from the scheduled November 28, 2026 local elections. Interim or temporary appointments prior to the vote are explicitly excluded. The resolution source relies on a consensus of reporting with an unambiguous fallback to the official Central Election Commission database if needed. A long backstop deadline of June 30, 2027 provides sufficient buffer for election certification or legal challenges, resolving to Other if no outcome is determined by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Su Chiao-hui will become the next Mayor of New Taipei following the Taiwanese local elections. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed prior to the election are excluded from consideration.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Su Chiao-hui becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of the November 28, 2026 election, excluding any temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election and becomes mayor. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution deadline for election result: — Market resolves to Other if no candidate is elected or known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Taiwanese government Central Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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