Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$136K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the target election on November 28, 2026, and focus strictly on the winner taking office from that race while explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up definitively by the official Central Election Commission database if any ambiguity arises. An ample resolution deadline of June 30, 2027, prevents rushed determinations, with a standard fallback to Other if no candidate is elected or known by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kuo Hsi will win the next Taipei Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kuo Hsi becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown or no candidate is elected by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government) official results if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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