Will Republicans win the Alaska Governor election and Democrats win the Alaska Senate election?
Current price
3.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.2%
$3.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome required to resolve this market, covering the November 3, 2026 Alaska gubernatorial and Senate general elections. Party affiliation is strictly tied to ballot listing or identifiable affiliation, explicitly excluding independents from being counted as Democrats or Republicans. Resolution is clearly sourced to calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a fallback to official state certification if the media consensus is not achieved, and an explicit fallback to an Other outcome if results are unresolved by March 31, 2027 or if a third-party/independent candidate wins.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the 2026 Alaska general elections result in a Republican victory for Governor and a Democratic victory for the U.S. Senate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the Alaska Governor race and a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the Alaska U.S. Senate race. It resolves to No if a different combination of major-party winners occurs. It resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either race, or if the election results are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Candidates running as independents do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of outside party affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all conclusively call both elections. If these three sources do not reach a consensus, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not conclusively known by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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