Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?
Current price
12.5¢
Implied probability 12.5%
$5.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the condition required for resolution, requiring a Democratic victory in the Alaska gubernatorial race and a Republican victory in the Senate race in the November 2026 election. Resolution relies on consensus calls from three major media networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with a fallback to official state certification if consensus is not reached. Independent candidates are strictly excluded from party definitions, and an explicit fallback to 'Other' applies if a third-party candidate wins or if results remain unknown past March 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic candidate wins the Alaska Gubernatorial race and the Republican candidate wins the Alaska U.S. Senate race in the 2026 general election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the Alaska Governor election and the candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the Alaska Senate election. Party representation is determined by ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, excluding independent candidates. The market resolves to No if any other combination of major-party outcomes occurs. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either election, or if the election results are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call both races, falling back to official certification if those three sources do not reach a consensus.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections.
- Result Resolution Deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not conclusively known by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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