Will Republicans sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$7.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines what constitutes a sweep, requiring the same party to win both the gubernatorial and US Senate races in Alaska. Party affiliation is tied strictly to ballot listing, excluding independents even if affiliated with a major party. Resolution depends on calls from three specified media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and defaults to official state certification if they fail to reach consensus. Clear fallbacks are established: if results remain unresolved by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins either seat, the market resolves to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win both the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections scheduled for 2026. A notable aspect is that candidates running as independents are not counted as Republicans or Democrats regardless of party affiliation, and third-party or independent victories result in an "Other" resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if candidates representing the Republican Party win both the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. A candidate represents a party via their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, excluding those running as independents. The market resolves to No if Republicans do not sweep both races, unless the criteria for Other are met. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either election, or if results are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all conclusively call the races; if they lack consensus, official certification determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections.
- Conclusive Result Deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not conclusively known by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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