Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?
Current price
71.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 71.5%
$46.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for a Democratic sweep, defining it as winning both the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Alaska in November 2026. The resolution criteria explicitly define party affiliation via ballot designation and state that independents do not count toward either major party. The resolution mechanism requires a consensus call across three major named media networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), falling back to official state certification if consensus is not reached. There is also a clear long-stop date of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if outcomes remain unresolved or if an independent/third-party candidate wins.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether candidates affiliated with the Democratic Party win both the Alaska Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections scheduled for 2026. Notably, candidates running as independents are excluded from being counted as Democrats or Republicans regardless of any party ties, and an independent/third-party win resolves the market to Other.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Democratic candidates win both the Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in Alaska. Party representation is determined by ballot-listed or identifiable party affiliation, excluding candidates who run as independents. The market resolves to No if Democrats do not sweep both races, provided the conditions for Other are not met. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either election, or if the election results are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all conclusively call both races, falling back to official certification if consensus among the three sources is not reached.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate general elections in Alaska.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not conclusively known by this date.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback to official certification)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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