Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and align well with the question.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and align well with the question. Resolution explicitly covers both the first round and any necessary runoff, requiring the listed candidate to win the election outright while explicitly disqualifying interim or caretaker presidents. The resolution source first references a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a clear fallback to official election authority results from Cape Verde's National Commission of Elections if ambiguity arises. A generous timeout date of June 30, 2027, is included, which resolves to 'Other' if definitive results are not available, leaving little room for unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
95%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Market explained
This market measures whether José Maria Neves will win the next Cape Verde presidential election, including a potential runoff. It features a specific long-stop deadline that defaults to Other if definitive results are missing.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if José Maria Neves wins the next Cape Verde presidential election, including any potential second round. An interim or caretaker President does not qualify. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official government sources such as the National Commission of Elections (CNE) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official Cape Verde government sources including the National Commission of Elections as the deciding authority in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·