Will Janine Lélis win the Cape Verde presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on whether the named candidate wins the next presidential election in Cape Verde, explicitly accounting for a possible second round and excluding interim or caretaker presidents.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on whether the named candidate wins the next presidential election in Cape Verde, explicitly accounting for a possible second round and excluding interim or caretaker presidents. The timeline includes an ample buffer period through June 30, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if definitive results are unavailable. While resolution primarily considers a consensus of credible reporting, it explicitly ties back to official government bodies, specifically the National Commission of Elections, should any ambiguity arise.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Janine Lélis will win the next Cape Verde presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Janine Lélis wins the next Cape Verde presidential election, with any interim or caretaker President excluded from qualifying. The market resolves No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from Cape Verde government sources, including the National Commission of Elections, if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from Cape Verde government sources, including the National Commission of Elections.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·