Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$2.1K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market presents significant structural friction. While the question asks a binary question about SpaceX, the rules state the market resolves to the identity of the second-largest company. Additionally, the question omits the target year while the rules specify December 31, 2026. Furthermore, SpaceX is currently a private company whose valuation is determined by private funding rounds or tender offers rather than a continuous market close, making comparisons against publicly traded market caps ambiguous. Resolution ultimately relies on deciders interpreting a consensus of credible reporting rather than referencing a standardized, official financial data provider.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether SpaceX will be the second-largest company globally by market capitalization at the close of trading on December 31, 2026. The market's resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine company valuations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if SpaceX is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the close of market on December 31, 2026. The market resolves No if SpaceX is not the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the close of market on December 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date:
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.