Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$844.6 total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated financial data provider such as Bloomberg, S&P, or official exchange data. Because market capitalization calculations can vary across outlets based on share share-class consolidation, treasury stock inclusion, and foreign exchange conversion rates on year-end trading days, closely ranked companies could produce conflicting reports. Additionally, while the question is framed as a yes-or-no outcome for Tesla, the rule text is structured to resolve directly to the name of the second-largest firm, though the core condition for resolution remains tied to the closing valuations on December 31, 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla's market capitalization will be the second largest globally at the close of trading on December 31, 2026. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the market caps.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if Tesla is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the close of trading on December 31, 2026. This market resolves No if Tesla is not the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the close of trading on December 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date:
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
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