Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question omits the specific year, though the rules clarify resolution applies to December 31, 2026. Evaluating relative market capitalization across global firms introduces complexity because companies trade on different international exchanges with different closing times, currency conversion rates, and potential holiday trading schedules on New Year's Eve. Furthermore, the rules do not designate a specific financial data provider or exchange index to measure market capitalizations, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the ranking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Aramco holds the position of the second-largest company globally by market capitalization at the close of trading on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Saudi Aramco is the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves No if Saudi Aramco is not the second-largest company in the world by market capitalization at the market close on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date:
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
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