Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?
Current price
16.25¢
Implied probability 16.25%
$1.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official vote tallies certified by the state electoral authority, with a clear mathematical formula based on the total valid votes cast for all candidates. The boundary rule is explicitly defined so that values falling exactly on a threshold resolve to the higher bracket. Detailed tiebreaker rules are provided based on alphabetical order of last names, and recount procedures allow resolution to wait until official certification up until the June 30, 2027 timeout. Participants should note the specific tiebreaker mechanics and the fallback to an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by a margin of victory between 9% and 12%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party candidate finishes in first place with a margin of victory over the second-place candidate within the 9% to 12% bracket based on the official vote count. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the top two candidates' shares of total valid votes cast. If the margin lands exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If candidates tie for first place, specific alphabetical tiebreakers apply. The market resolves to No if the Republican candidate does not win or wins by a margin outside this bracket. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if a tie occurs between unlisted candidates. Resolution is determined by official results from the state electoral authority, or alternatively by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election is expected to take place.
- Resolution cutoff date: — If results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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