Kansas Governor Election Margin of Victory
4 live outcomes · highest priced: Masterson 0-3% at 20% · first close Nov 4, 2026 · $13.3K total volume
About this event
This event covers the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election, measuring the margin of victory between the top two candidates across specific percentage brackets and winning party outcomes.
How the outcomes relate
Markets in this event represent mutually exclusive margin brackets for the winning candidate. Because a single election margin can only resolve one margin bracket, at most one market in this group can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the final margin of victory falls into its specified percentage bracket for the winning candidate, and No otherwise. The margin is calculated as the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates divided by all valid votes cast. If a value lands exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by the June 30, 2027 deadline, the market resolves to Other.
Key dates
- Expected election date:
- Definitive result resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masterson 0-3% | 20% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Masterson 3-6% | 17% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Masterson 9-12% | 16% | — | Low | Med | |
| Masterson 6-9% | 14% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Masterson 18%+ | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Masterson 15-18% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Masterson 12-15% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Holscher 0-3% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Holscher 3-6% | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Holscher 6%+ | — | — | Not rated | — |