Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?
Current price
13.95¢
Implied probability 13.95%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clearly defined quantitative mechanics for calculating the margin of victory, which is based on the top two candidates' share of all valid votes cast. Official state certified election results serve as the primary source, with explicit fallback provisions for recount delays and an ultimate cutoff date of June 30, 2027. Boundary conditions are addressed unambiguously: values falling directly on a bracket edge resolve to the higher bracket, and specific alphabetical tie-breaking rules handle exact vote ties between candidates.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election with a margin of victory between 0% and 3% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party candidate wins the election by an absolute margin of victory between 0% and 3% of all valid votes cast, inclusive of the higher bracket boundary if a tie between brackets occurs. It also resolves to Yes if there is an exact first-place tie involving the Democrat whose last name comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if the Democrat wins outside this range, if another candidate wins, or if the election does not produce this specific margin. It resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if an unlisted candidate tie occurs. The state electoral authority responsible for certifying results acts as the primary resolution source, alongside an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected Election Day: — The date the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election is expected to be held.
- Resolution Deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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