Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event covers the margin of victory in the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. Markets track specific percentage margin brackets for the winning party or candidate, measuring the absolute difference in valid vote share between the first-place and second-place candidates.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of mutually exclusive margin-of-victory brackets for the election. Because an election produces a single final margin between the top two candidates, at most one bracket market can resolve Yes. If a final value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the rules specify it resolves to the higher margin bracket.

How it resolves

Markets resolve based on the certified official vote count from the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference between the vote shares of the top two finishers relative to all valid votes cast. A market resolves Yes if the winning candidate's party and final margin fall within its defined bracket, and No otherwise. If a recount occurs before official certification, resolution waits for completion. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to 'Other'.

Key dates

• Election Day: Nov 3, 2026 — Expected date of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.
• Definitive result deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Markets resolve to 'Other' if election results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on this date.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC