Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?
Current price
13.5¢
Implied probability 13.5%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market provides clear, objective mathematical formulas for calculating the victory margin based on total valid votes cast. Resolution relies on certified results from the official state electoral authority, with an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary reference. Standard procedures are established for recounts, boundary values (rounding up to the higher margin bracket if falling precisely between brackets), nominee replacements, and alphabetical tie-breakers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by a victory margin between 12% and 15%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party candidate wins the election with a margin of victory of 12% to 15% over the second-place candidate, calculated from valid votes. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the Democratic nominee does not win within this margin range. It resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or in specific multi-candidate tie scenarios involving unlisted candidates. Resolution is decided by the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Date the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is expected to take place.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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