Arizona Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. Individual markets measure the winner and the specific margin of victory between the top two candidates, divided into party or candidate percentage brackets.

How the outcomes relate

Markets represent mutually exclusive victory margin brackets for the candidates. The rules specify tie-breaking and bracket boundary rules indicating that at most one margin bracket outcome can resolve Yes, while all other bracket markets resolve No.

How it resolves

Each market resolves according to the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated from total valid votes. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket. If a recount occurs before certification, the market stays open until official certification. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other. In the event of a tie, alphabetical tiebreakers apply.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026 — Date the election is expected to be held.
• Definitive result deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC