Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated based on total valid votes from certified election results published by the state electoral authority.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated based on total valid votes from certified election results published by the state electoral authority. A backup resolution source of credible reporting consensus is permitted, and specific clauses handle edge cases such as exact bracket boundaries (resolving to the higher margin bracket), recounts, candidate replacements, ties, and a final timeout date of June 30, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party candidate wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by a margin of victory between 5% and 10%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the election and the margin of victory over the second-place candidate is between 5% and 10% (inclusive of the higher bracket if falling exactly between brackets). Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' vote shares divided by total valid votes cast. The market resolves to No if the Republican candidate does not win or wins by a margin outside the 5%-10% range. It resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or in specific tie scenarios involving unlisted candidates. Resolution is determined by official results from the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
The official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·