Alabama Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the outcome and margin of victory in the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. Its markets measure specific percentage margin brackets for the winning party's candidate based on the official share of valid votes cast.

How the outcomes relate

Markets in this event represent mutually exclusive margin brackets or winning outcomes. At most one market can resolve Yes, as each corresponds to a distinct percentage range or party victory scenario based on the final certified margin between the top two candidates.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if the final margin of victory falls within its specified percentage bracket, calculated as the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates. Vote percentages are determined by dividing each top-two candidate's valid votes by the total sum of all valid votes cast. If a margin falls exactly between brackets, the higher bracket resolves Yes. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to Other. Resolution is based on the official certified vote count from the state electoral authority, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026 — Date the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is expected to take place.
• Resolution deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or markets resolve to Other.

Resolution source

The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC