Will Manuel Scott Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible media reporting, but explicitly falls back to official certifications from the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico if any ambiguity arises. Interim or caretaker governors are excluded, and there is an ample multi-month window after the June election before the December 31, 2027 timeout triggers a resolution to Other.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Manuel Scott Sánchez will win the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. An interim or caretaker Governor does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Manuel Scott Sánchez wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, excluding any interim or caretaker Governor. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if definitive results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico, if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources of Sonora and Mexico including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·