Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the named candidate winning the scheduled June 6, 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker governors.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the named candidate winning the scheduled June 6, 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker governors. While the primary resolution standard relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude for interpretation, it includes a clear fallback to official government electoral bodies (the Electoral Institute of Sonora and INE) if any ambiguity arises. A standard timeout provision is included, resolving to Other if definitive results are not available by December 31, 2027, giving ample time for election certification.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
55%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lorenia Valles Sampedro wins the Sonora gubernatorial election scheduled for 2027. Resolution excludes interim or caretaker governors and includes a specific deadline resolving to "Other" if results remain unknown.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lorenia Valles Sampedro wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to "Other" if the definitive election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Sonora and Mexican government sources—such as the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico—if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from government sources of Sonora and Mexico including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·