Will Patricia Mercado Castro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market asks straightforwardly whether a specific candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
The market asks straightforwardly whether a specific candidate wins the scheduled 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official election authorities (the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. There is a generous timing buffer through December 31, 2027, allowing ample time for certification and legal challenges to conclude. Clear carve-outs explicitly exclude interim or caretaker appointments from qualifying.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Patricia Mercado Castro will win the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. An unusual condition is that interim or caretaker governors do not qualify, and the market can resolve to "Other" if definitive results are delayed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Patricia Mercado Castro wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, excluding any interim or caretaker Governor. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, solely based on official results from government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·