Will Guadalupe María Soto win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on the official winner of the June 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on the official winner of the June 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically points to official election authorities (the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if reporting is contested or unclear. There is a generous window of nearly seven months following election day before a December 31, 2027 timeout triggers resolution to an alternative outcome, leaving sufficient time for election certification or legal challenges to conclude.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Guadalupe María Soto will win the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. An unusual condition is that the market resolves to "Other" if the outcome is not definitively known by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Guadalupe María Soto wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from government sources in Sonora and Mexico (including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallbacks to official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·