Will Lilly Téllez García win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly define what outcome is required: the specified candidate must win the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly define what outcome is required: the specified candidate must win the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. The market allows several months after the June 2027 election date until the December 31, 2027 cutoff, providing sufficient time for official certification and legal challenges. Primary determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but the rules provide clear fallback authority to official Mexican electoral bodies (IEE Sonora and INE) if any reporting ambiguity arises.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lilly Téllez García will win the Sonora gubernatorial election scheduled for 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lilly Téllez García wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial election. Any interim or caretaker Governor does not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official government sources from Sonora and Mexico (including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if there is ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·