Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?
Current price
32.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 32.5%
$1.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the margin of victory is calculated using valid vote totals and define boundary handling, stating that a value landing exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket. Official certified results from the state electoral authority serve as the primary source, with explicit recount waiting procedures and a hard timeout date of June 30, 2027. Explicit tiebreaker mechanics based on alphabetical order are documented, leaving little room for misinterpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Iowa Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Iowa Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election by a margin of 0% to 3%. It includes specific tie-breaking rules based on alphabetical order and rounds exact boundary values to the higher margin bracket.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the election and the margin of victory over the second-place candidate is between 0% and 3% of all valid votes. If the margin falls exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher bracket. It resolves No if the Democratic nominee does not win or wins by a margin outside the 0%-3% range. If there is a tie for first place, the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner in the lowest margin bracket. It resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, or if a tie occurs exclusively between unlisted candidates. Resolution is decided by the state electoral authority's certified official vote count, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Recounts initiated before certification will delay resolution until the vote becomes official.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 Iowa Senate election is currently expected to be held.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — If election results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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