Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 Iowa Senate election. Its markets measure which specific candidate or party wins the race and within which percentage-point margin bracket their victory falls over the second-place finisher.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as mutually exclusive percentage-margin brackets paired with specific candidates or party nominees. Because the rules specify that a value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket and define specific tiebreaker rules, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to Yes if the designated candidate or party wins within the specified margin of victory range, and No otherwise. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates, calculated out of all valid votes cast. If a value falls exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher bracket. If two or more candidates tie for first place, specific alphabetical tiebreaking rules apply. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to "Other". Official certified vote counts from the state electoral authority serve as the primary source, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Key dates

• Expected Election Day: Nov 3, 2026
• Definitive Result Resolution Cutoff: Jun 30, 2027 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Official results of the 2026 Iowa Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying election results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC