No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Current price
6.5¢
Implied probability 6.5%
$102.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market relies on direct official releases from the Bank of England regarding the outcome of its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The resolution mechanics clearly outline the exact benchmark metric, rounding rules for non-standard rate adjustments, and specific fallback procedures in the event of meeting postponement or cancellation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee leaves the Bank Rate unchanged following its November 2026 meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decides on no change to the Bank Rate at its November 2026 meeting, or if the meeting is cancelled, or if it is postponed without an announced decision before the next scheduled meeting. The market resolves No if the Bank Rate is increased or decreased by any amount as a result of the meeting. Emergency rate changes outside the specified meeting are disregarded. Official information and releases from the Bank of England decide the resolution.
Key dates
- Scheduled MPC meeting: — Date listed on the official Bank of England calendar for the meeting release.
Resolution source
Official information from the Bank of England
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.