Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.5¢
Implied probability 0.5%
$42.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official publications directly from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or source discretion. The resolution criteria clearly define how rate changes are measured relative to the pre-meeting level and provide unambiguous rounding rules for unconventional rate cuts (such as rounding cuts under 25 bps up to 25 bps). Rescheduling and cancellation scenarios are explicitly handled, ensuring the outcome relies strictly on the official decision announced for that meeting cycle.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decreases the Bank Rate by 25 basis points following its November 2026 meeting. Unusually, rate adjustments are subject to specific rounding rules if not matching standard intervals.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decreases the Bank Rate by 25 basis points after its November 2026 meeting. Decreases of less than 25 bps round to 25 bps, while other changes round to the nearest 25 bps (rounding away from 0 when equidistant). The market resolves to No if the rate is changed by a different amount, increased, or left unchanged. If the meeting is cancelled or postponed past the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No Change outcome. Emergency rate changes outside the meeting are disregarded. Official information from the Bank of England decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Scheduled MPC meeting announcement: — Date listed on the official Bank of England calendar for the November 2026 meeting release.
Resolution source
Bank of England
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