Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes winning: receiving the highest number of valid votes in South Carolina's primary, caucus, or comparable delegate selection process for the 2028 Democratic convention, using final round counts if multi-round.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes winning: receiving the highest number of valid votes in South Carolina's primary, caucus, or comparable delegate selection process for the 2028 Democratic convention, using final round counts if multi-round. An explicit alphabetical tie-breaker by last name is specified if vote totals are identical. A hard cutoff date of August 1, 2028, provides sufficient time for certification while preventing indefinite delays. The primary resolution source is the official announcement from the South Carolina Democratic Party, though deciders retain some leeway to rely on an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kamala Harris will win the most votes in the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary or delegate selection process.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes (or to Kamala Harris) if she wins the most valid votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official public delegate selection process for the 2028 Democratic Convention. For multi-round processes, final round vote counts apply. Ties are broken alphabetically by last name. The market resolves to No (or another candidate) if another named candidate occupies the highest finishing position. The market resolves to Other if no process takes place or if results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The decider is the first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution source
The first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·