Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by the highest number of valid votes in the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary or delegate-selection process, with the primary official source being the South Carolina Democratic Party.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by the highest number of valid votes in the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary or delegate-selection process, with the primary official source being the South Carolina Democratic Party. A secondary fallback allowing an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting introduces a small amount of decider judgment. An artificial tie-breaker resolves ties in alphabetical order by candidate last name rather than a split outcome, and a fallback resolves the market to 'Other' if no process occurs or results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
30%
chance▼ −2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jon Ossoff will win the most votes in the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary or delegate selection process. Resolution relies on vote counts with ties broken alphabetically by candidate last name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jon Ossoff wins the most valid votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official public delegate selection process for the 2028 Democratic Convention. In a multi-round process or caucus, only the final round vote count counts. If candidates tie on valid votes, ties are broken alphabetically by last name, and the highest-ranked candidate wins. The market resolves to No if another candidate finishes with the highest ranking. The market resolves to Other if no process takes place or if results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution source
First official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·