Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what counts as an election occurring (nationwide election-day voting) and define government formation as passing a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what counts as an election occurring (nationwide election-day voting) and define government formation as passing a vote of confidence in the Knesset. However, there is no single official record designated to resolve the market, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to establish whether these milestones occurred before the December 31, 2027 cutoff. Additionally, holding a position requires tracking a potentially multi-year sequence of political events up to late 2027, where timing depends heavily on the specific date a government achieves a successful confidence vote.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
7%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether precisely three nationwide Israeli legislative election days take place before a new government passes a Knesset vote of confidence or the end date arrives.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if exactly three Israeli legislative elections occur before a government passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset or by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever is earlier. An election counts as occurring when nationwide election-day voting opens to eligible voters across Israel, disregarding early or special voting mechanisms and election result publications. The market resolves No if any other number of elections occurs before a government is formed or the deadline passes. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·