Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
The title omits the year, but the rules explicitly establish a deadline of December 31, 2026, creating a multi-year window that could surprise someone expecting the current calendar year. The rules specifically require physical entry onto terrestrial territory, explicitly ruling out airspace or maritime incursions. Because María Corina Machado's exact whereabouts have often been clandestine within Venezuela, verifying a distinct physical entry rather than continued presence may rely heavily on news verification. No specific official agency or registry is designated to decide, leaving resolution dependent on assessing a consensus across credible reporting.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
The price rose sharply from 33% to 98%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
No news-backed explanation was ready before close.
AI-generated · 25 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
The price dropped from 33% to 24%, but available news reports and market data offer no clear evidence to support a specific driver for the move.
AI-generated · 25 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC
The market price fell from 46% to 33%, but available news reports and market data provide no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 24 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
This market measures whether María Corina Machado physically enters the terrestrial territory of Venezuela by December 31, 2026. Entry into Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory explicitly does not qualify.
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A visit is defined strictly as physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela; entering airspace or maritime territory does not count. The market resolves to No if she does not physically enter terrestrial Venezuela by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.