Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Current price
0.85¢
Implied probability 0.85%
$10K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official 99th Academy Awards winner for Best Picture, referencing the official Academy website and ceremony broadcast. An early resolution clause resolves the market to No if the film fails to secure an official nomination when nominations are announced. Additionally, a tiebreaker rule dictates resolution in favor of the alphabetically first title among tied winners, and a hard deadline of June 30, 2027 resolves the market to Other if no winner is announced.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Tradability has not been assessed for this market.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film Project Hail Mary will win the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Project Hail Mary wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. In the event of a tie, the market resolves in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if Project Hail Mary is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, or if another eligible film wins. The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined using official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, their website, the live broadcast, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Nominations announcement: — Nominations scheduled to be announced; non-nominated films resolve to No immediately.
- Ceremony date: — Scheduled date for the 99th Academy Awards ceremony.
- Resolution deadline: Market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS (including oscars.org), the live ceremony broadcast, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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