US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$3.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on an official public announcement from the United States government or authorized entities like the President, State Department, Department of Defense, or CENTCOM. The rules provide detailed criteria for what counts, requiring a declarative and definitive decision rather than conditional statements, leaks, or narrow single-vessel exemptions. Although the statement does not need to use the exact word blockade if the substantive policy change is clearly communicated, the requirement for an official, definitive government communication keeps the scope tightly defined. Resolution occurs as soon as a qualifying announcement is made, even if the policy is later reversed or not fully implemented on the ground, with a firm cutoff on October 15, 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States officially announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships by October 15, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the general end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by October 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements stating the blockade will not take effect at all also qualify. Limited exemptions for specific vessels, informal remarks, leaks, contingent statements, or third-party speculation do not qualify. The market resolves to Yes upon a qualifying announcement even if it is later reversed. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is decided using official information from the US government, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, CENTCOM, or official representatives.
Key dates
- Blockade reinstatement announced: — Trump announced the US would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran.
- Resolution deadline: — Announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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